Holy hell. This Oscar season has been wild. It’s been getting more and more unpredictable over the years, with many voting bodies turning sharply away from the expected winners based on awards leading up to the event, namely the Guild awards, which more often than not, predict the final outcome.
Emilia Pérez began as the very early frontrunner. It blew minds at Cannes, setting up its inevitable dominance come Oscar night. It’s a bold film, of course it is. Its audacious in scope, tone and scale. The only problem is that it is highly problematic and well, just not very good across the board. The wheels began to fall off the wagon very quickly once audiences caught on, from viral clips of genuinely awful music and set pieces to Mexicans being outraged by the lack of nuance and well, understanding of social, cultural and even the linguistic aspects of their country. LGTQIA+ communities were also highly critical of its portrayal and handling of Trans identity – chalking it up to rehashes of stereotypes that do nothing but mislead and hurt their cause. And let’s not forget how actress Karla Sofía Gascón, the titular character and the first openly Trans actress to receive an Oscar nomination, had racist and Islamophobic tweets dug up from the past, effectively killing her chances of winning. With Netflix eventually pulling her from their awards campaign entirely. So, apart from at least two awards that appear to be locks, Emilia Pérez, to the joy of most cinephiles and the entirety of Mexico, is dead in the water. The potential Crash of this year’s ceremony is no more. Whew.
Then, from the ashes of Emilia Pérez, rose The Brutalist. Brady Corbet’s 3 ½ hour Silver Lion (Venice Film Festival award for Best Director) winning epic about a Holocaust survivor’s pursuit of The American Dream. But, that also hit a snag on the road, with AI being admitted to having been used by its editor in one major aspect and one minor. The minor? Illustrations made by its protagonist László (as played by Adrien Brody) were in fact done by AI. But the bigger controversy was that AI had been used to make its non-Hungarian cast have better Hungarian accents. This could've been achieved manually in pro-tools, but Brady explained the use for this was down to time and money considering the small budget they had to play with. But when writers and actors went on strike a few years ago, AI was one of the main talking points in these protests. So this in itself could affect The Brutalist’s chances at ultimate glory. It hasn’t affected its run too much though, with it taking Best Actor, Best Director and Best Drama at the Golden Globes, as well as Brody taking most of the acting awards leading up to Oscar night.
Sean Baker’s barnstorming rom-com turned screwball thriller darling Anora won the biggest prize at Cannes with the Palm d’Or, pushing itself comfortably into awards season chatter. I’m not sure if it’s because of the above mentioned controversies, but Anora quickly replaced them as the runaway favourite. Despite being completely shut out at the Golden Globes, it has pretty much dominated everywhere else. From The Indie Spirit Awards to Critics Choice Awards to Writer’s, Director's and Producer's Guild awards, as well as a truckload of critics awards across the US. But in previous year’s Guild awards, which would normally be slam dunks, have gone differently come Oscar night. It’s still rare for the awards to go completely different to that of the Guild results, but something could change and considering this Oscar race, it wouldn’t surprise me.
The Screen Actor’s Guild, or SAG, threw in some more curveballs, with Demi Moore returning back to the favourite for Best Actress after Mikey Madison’s (Anora) odds grew more and more. But that wasn’t the big surprise. Timothee Chalamet winning Best Actor over heavily favoured Adrien Brody has now pushed him up further, whilst Conclave shocked everyone with the biggest award of the night: Best Ensemble, a major indicator of who wins Best Picture come Oscar night. Seeing as the Actor's Guild is the biggest voting body.
Let's take a moment to also mourn the absence of Challengers, Luca Guadagnino's hot-as-hell sexless sports thriller that is both all about tennis and not about it at all.
But what I’m most looking forward to is Conan O’Brien hosting. He’s been one of my idols for the longest time, ever since we would tape his Late Night shows on CNBC Business Africa in the early 2000s. And then finding out that he wrote some of my favourite Simpsons jokes ever (the glory years). Hell, he’s been a staple in my comedy upbringing, so I’m hoping for weird, wild and loud Conan on the night. Please do a Substance bit that either includes a superior version of himself presenting or him coming to the awards show as Monstro Conan, complete with a printout of his face taped to his deformed head.
So anyways, enough contextualizing up there, let’s make some predictions of who I think will win, who should win and what will win. So there will be more contextualizing below, actually. Sorry.
NOTE: For the first time in a long while, I haven’t watched most of the Documentary and animated shorts as it is virtually impossible to access any of them if you’re not a voter, or if you haven’t attended festival screenings with them included (I unfortunately missed out on the one time screenings locally). So I will be abstaining from predicting those categories. Also, I have not seen two of the documentaries for Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land and Porceline War, as there’s literally no way for me to watch them other than hopping on a plane and traveling to a screening in the US. Bummer. The same goes for I’m Still Here, Brazil’s entry for Best International Film as well as its Best Actress and Best Picture nominations is also unavailable for me to watch at this point in time. So my opinion on that film will be based on what I have read from the voting climate, etc. Review for that will likely arrive once I’ve seen it.
NOTE: I am basing a lot of these predictions on general gut feeling, anonymous Oscar Ballot articles and the trend of awards leading up to the event. Due to the wild nature of this awards season, these predictions will probably be my most unsuccessful year yet as it has been so unpredictable. So anyways, here we go...
ONE MORE NOTE: ** - Have not seen.
Best Picture
The Nominees
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here **
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
What will win: Conclave
What could win: Anora
What should win: Anora
What should be here: Challengers
Emilia Pérez is officially dead in the water. The Brutalist’s momentum has slowed down since The Golden Globes. So now Anora remains the overwhelming favourite due to wins at the Writer’s, Director’s and most importantly, Producer’s Guilds. But, Conclave’s wins at the BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild for Ensemble has pushed their odds up to second, leapfrogging The Brutalist and could be set for a major upset. The BAFTAs aren’t the biggest indicator, seeing as it’s the British Academy Awards, but the SAGs have always played a major part in the Best Picture race. The Actors Guild makes up a majority of the voting body so if their votes went to Conclave over the favourites Anora and The Brutalist, it could be the same result on the night. However, Ensemble Awards aren't necessarily a guarantee, as they have awarded what is just the biggest cast of the night in the past.
The Academy still likes to go for a more traditional feeling film, so seeing as Anora isn’t as Oscar-friendly as the other friendlier films in musicals, music biopics and period dramas, Anora could lose out to the safer choices that lend more to the palettes of older voters. But thankfully, voters have been getting younger and more open-minded over the years, so I’m hoping both the nuanced and relentless, screwball energy of Anora takes it home. Also, editing and writing noms are vital in your Best Picture chances as well. Winning them doubles those odds, so if a film wins both on the night, they will likely win the top prize. So that battle could be between Anora and Conclave, not The Brutalist, as they are heavily favoured in those categories. It could however be a night of spreading the wealth as well. As wild as the Oscar race has been, literally anything could happen. For all we know, Megalopolis could win. *Shudder.
Best Director
The Nominee
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
James Mangold (A Complete Unkown)
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Who will win: Sean Baker
Who could win: Brady Corbet
Who should win: Sean Baker/Coralie Fargeat
Who should be here: Luca Guadagnino (Challengers) & Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Jacques Audiard has made some extraordinary films, so it's disheartening to see him make such a blatant piece of awards bait in Emilia Pérez. The musical set-pieces are bland, unexciting and clumsy, so it feels like such a wasted spot when you have the likes of Luca Guadagnino and Villeneuve churning in such stellar work and get left out entirely. Especially the latter who was snubbed of a nomination for Dune at 2022’s Oscars despite it winning six. But this appears to be Baker’s category to lose. He won the Critic’s Choice Award as well as the Director's Guild Award, which are major indicators. Very rarely has the winner of those lost on Oscar night. In that case most recently, Bong Joon-Ho winning for Parasite over Sam Mendes for 1917 despite his dominance on the road.
But it doesn’t appear anyone else will challenge him much besides Brady Corbet, who made the kind of American Epic that voters have an appreciation for as they yearn for films of that epic, yet intimate caliber once more. But Baker’s handling of pace, tone genre and Anora's actual message are exemplary. A tireless marathon worthy of the award. I would also love to see Coralie Fargeat win, but seeing as the Academy, historically at least, don’t really take horror seriously, her chances seem slim here.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
The Nominees
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Who will win: Demi Moore
Who could win: Mikey Madison
Who should win: Mikey Madison
Potential Spoiler: Fernanda Torres*
Ok, so we know Karla Sofía Gascón definitely won’t win. Hell, I’m surprised she’s even attending after the controversy of her old racist and Islamophobic tweets resurfacing. So we can rule her out. The favourite as it stands is Demi Moore. The Oscars love comeback stories, as seen most recently with the likes of Brendan Frasier and Ke Huy Quan. And seeing as it’s also an extremely vulnerable and introspective performance on beauty standards, aging and eventually learning to love yourself, this is a performance the Academy will rightfully eat up, awarding her in major signifiers in the Critic’s Choice Awards, Golden Globes and finally, the SAGs. It’s a great performance, but I loved Mikey Madison more in Anora, one that is a genuine star-making turn that is hilarious, frantic and finally, moving as we see a guarded woman desperately latching onto and fighting for the hope of a better life, eventually chipping away at the wall she has built up around herself, revealing who she really is and what she really needs - culminating in one of the best closing scenes of the decade so far. It’s a stunning achievement and I can only picture her beating Demi Moore for the award. The Academy has awarded very young winners in these major categories in the past (Adrien Brody and Brie Larson most notably). But seeing as she is so young, voters might have the mindset of “she will eventually have her day” and give it to Demi Moore instead, who might never have the chance again.
Fernanda Torres could upset the draw as she took a surprise win at the Golden Globes, but the lack of access and plenty of anonymous voters admitting to never having heard of or watched the film, could hurt its chances. But those who have seen it, were blown away by it. If this were more accessible leading up to the awards, her chances may have been higher. But it appears this will be Demi Moore’s night. Another win for horror films that unfortunately are far too often overlooked by the academy.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Who will win: Timothee Chalamet
Who could win: Adrien Brody/Ralph Fiennes
Who should win: Colman Domingo
Who should be here: Daniel Craig (Queer)
This is one category where I’d be pleased with any of these winners. Adrien Brody is still the favourite here. But the shock win for Chalamet at the SAGs is the reason behind my pick. There’s only been one occasion (at least that I’m aware of), where an actor has won the Oscar for Best Actor on the night without winning any of the precursor awards (funnily enough, that was Adrien Brody for The Pianist). Seeing as Chalamet just became the youngest to ever win the SAG, it has catapulted him over Fiennes and the second best bet after Brody. I know I said the Academy might not pick Mikey Madison due to age, but they could be generous elsewhere by giving it to Chalamet whose Oscar campaigning has been on another level. Not that it feels desperate, but just smart - most notably as the music guest on SNL, showcasing just how hard he worked on becoming Bob Dylan. The Academy loves music biopics and they'll love that Chalamet sang and played all the songs on screen, so it wouldn’t surprise me if one of the major upsets is him in this category. Plus, he should've won Best Actor for Call Me By Your Name. Brody might lose out due to having won already, whereas others may vote for Fiennes because he is long overdue, especially considering that he should’ve won Best Supporting Actor for Schindler’s List.
But for me, Colman Domingo would get my vote. His portrayal of a member of an acting troupe in Sing Sing prison is extraordinary and it baffles me how very little A24, the studio behind the film, campaigned for it. It’s my favourite performance of the lot. Sebastian Stan’s nomination came as a nice surprise considering he churned in not one, but two outstanding performances last year (the other being the dark comedy A Different Man). It could’ve been so easy to do a caricature of Donald Trump, but instead, he ground him in reality, making him feel real, which in turn, makes him scarier.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
The Nominees
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Who will win: Zoe Saldaña
Who could win: Ariana Grande
Who should win: Monica Barbaro
Who should be here: Margaret Qualley (The Substance)
The supporting actor categories are always the earliest locks, as they tend to win at all the awards shows leading up to the Oscars. So expect Zoe Saldaña’s win to be one of the few consolation prizes for Emilia Pérez following its chaotic crawl to the end. However, her being here feels like category fraud as she is the film’s protagonist, not its titular character. It’s an excellent performance, one of the few actual bright lights of the film. I can picture a worthy Ariana Grande possibly upsetting the category, but I’d love to see Monica Barbaro win here. Her turn as folk singer Joan Baez anchors so much of what A Complete Unknown is successful in, often times out-performing Chalamet as her and Bob Dylan’s tumultuous relationship serves as one of the key focal points of A Complete Unknown. It’s a loving ode to a legend that is incredibly sincere and is easily my favourite of the category.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Who will win: Kieran Culkin
Who could win: Edward Norton
Who should win: Yura Borisov/Kieran Culkin
Who should be here: Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) & Drew Starkey (Queer)
Another locked category, but once again, has received some accusations of category fraud with Kieran Culkin being here, a role most people regard as a lead along with his co-star Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain. Nevertheless, that noise is minor, and you will see Culkin take the prize, beating out his Succession co-star Jeremy Strong (another surprise nomination which is well deserved playing the vile Roy Cohn, Trump’s apprentice in the 70s and 80s). Those saying he’s just playing himself fail to read between the lines as it's Culkin at his most vulnerable, unpredictable and sincere. A beautiful performance that captures what it really feels like to be stuck in your grief. I’d be very happy with Culkin winning, but my vote goes to Yura Borisov – the important anchor to Anora, the vital key to the puzzle that effectively brings the entire film into focus and lets us finally see what it’s really about. He’s incredible. But the momentum is too strong in Culkin’s favour.
Edward Norton is the only other real challenge to Culkin in what could be a legacy win for the actor who famously missed out on Best Actor for American History X to Roberto Benigni for Life is Beautiful. It’s another strong, stacked category, but I would loved to have seen Clarence Maclin receiving a nod for his debut performance in Sing Sing – a real-life success story of the Sing Sing Rehabilitation Through the Arts program that reshaped his life and saved him from a life of crime he was incarcerated for. It’s a revelatory performance that goes toe to toe with Domingo’s incredible turn, something that is no easy feat for any newcomer. Drew Starkey, the object of Daniel Craig’s obsession in Queer deserved a nod as well – an incredibly difficult performance that required him to keep his character close to his chest, keeping both us and Craig’s character in the dark. That’s incredibly tough to do. And he pulled it off effortlessly.
Best International Feature Films
The Nominees
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)
What will win: I’m Still Here*
What could win: The Seed of the Sacred Fig
What should win: The Girl with the Needle
Normally, this would’ve been a locked category for Emilia Pérez, but due to the backlash for it spreading to academy members, I think the deserters will be looking elsewhere, most likely to that of I’m Still Here which boasts two other major nominations including Best Actress and Best Picture. So I can see it overcoming Emilia Pérez in that regard. The Seed of the Sacred Fig could cause an upset, an important film about what is happening in not just Iran, but could be seen as happening anywhere else around the world as women’s basic rights and freedoms are going backward, making this another timely pick along with I’m Still Here’s warning of totalitarian dictatorships. Although I haven’t seen I’m Still Here, my favourite of the lot on offer here is Magnus von Horn’s disturbing period psychological drama The Girl with the Needle, which follows a mother forced to give up her child for adoption, only to find herself encountering prominent real-life baby killer Dagmar Overbye. It’s a deeply unsettling film about maternal instincts and the importance of abortion rights (just to name a few), making it another timely pick for voters.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
What will win: Flow
What could win: The Wild Robot
What should win: Flow
This is often a frustrating category that usually goes with whatever animated film is the most popular at the time. With some infuriating Anonymous Oscar Ballot voters admitting to letting their kids pick the winners here. They just don’t take it all that seriously, especially the older voters who see animation as nothing more than entertainment only for kids. But this year’s slate of nominations suggests that the attitude is now turning, and as the voters get younger, so too does their understanding of mediums that were brushed off in the past. Voters are evolving for the better much like audiences are. This category is stacked, and although I’m not the biggest fan of misery porn Memoirs of a Snail, it’s great to see mature, adult-themed animated titles making the cut. More of this, please. Winning at The Golden Globes, The Annie Awards and Independent Spirit Awards, Flow is my pick to take it here. If this year is anything like the last, people opted for the anime The Boy and the Heron by the legendary Hayoa Miyazaki over the flashier, far more popular Across the Spider-Verse, which it bested at The Golden Globes as well. We could see a repeat here over the more popular, more accessible Wild Robot. And although The Wild Robot is an immensely beautiful film, Flow’s minimalist, wordless story as well as how it got made on limited resources and far less money than its big studio competition, voters might resonate with that more. Flow being up for Best International Feature may also be a huge factor for voters here.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
What will win: Anora
What could win: A Real Pain
What should win: The Substance
What should be here: Challengers
This is a tough category to determine as spoils have been split between Anora and A Real Pain with A Real Pain winning a BAFTA and Indie Spirit Award while Anora took the WGA (biggest factor here). Anora being a Best Picture nominee pushes it closer to that win and if it wins here, its chances of taking the top prize increase. I love both screenplays but I want Coralie Fargeat to go home with something. The Substance may not be subtle in its subject matter at all, but it still remains an incredibly smart, creative, campy thrill ride with an important message at its center: love and be kinder to yourself. If it doesn’t win here, it’ll at least take lead actress and makeup & hairstyling. Either way, I’m just happy a horror film is here, especially a great one. Here’s hoping the Academy continues to reward great horror in the future. Challengers not being in this category is a huge injustice as well. Booo Academy booo.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
What will win: Conclave
What could win: A Complete Unknown
What should win: Nickel Boys
Again, if either Conclave takes this category along with editing, we then have the likely winner for Best Picture. Conclave is my pick, but A Complete Unknown could just do the job as well seeing as the Academy loves music biopics. Emilia Pérez doesn’t stand a chance once again due to its numerous controversies, this time from its writer/director doing the bare minimum of research into his subject, which, according to Mexicans, very much shows. Nickel Boys would be my pick. I’ve read the book and hearing about the POV aspect of this film, had me worrying that it would become gimmicky, limiting its power due to its visual perspective. Thankfully it doesn't do that, observing tiny details that enrich the empathetic viewpoint RaMell Ross needed to place us in to truly experience the horrors of youth, uncertainty and racism in Jim Crowe era America. A spectacular adaptation that enriches the text of its novel even further. It’s a shame this wasn’t pushed harder for awards in all categories as its Best Picture nomination is thoroughly deserved.
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land**
Porcelain War**
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
What will win: No Other Land**
What could win: Porcelain War**
What should win: No Other Land**
Admittedly, I still haven’t seen both of the above picks and based on big wins for both films leading up to this moment, it’s a category that is increasingly difficult to predict. Both films are vitally important, with Porcelain War following artists continuing to create porcelain artworks during the war in Ukraine, while No Other Land is a collaboration between an Israeli journalist and Palestinian activist about the systemic destruction and theft of Palestinian land and homes in The West Bank. Last year saw the brutal 20 Days in Mariupol from Ukraine win Best Documentary, so it might be a chance for voters to draw more eyes to the situation in Palestine with No Other Land. Although I haven’t seen it yet, I understand it does just that, providing another important perspective into what is happening to ordinary people trying to survive an oppressive regime.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu
What will win: The Brutalist
What could win: Emilia Pérez
What should win: The Brutalist
What should be here: Nickel Boys & Conclave
The Brutalist feels like a lock here, taking home top prizes in this field prior. The Academy’s love for musicals might sway them to pick Emilia Pérez, but the simultaneous claustrophobia and grand scope of The Brutalist’s intimate visuals should be enough to walk this one over the line. Again, wish Nickel Boys got some love here.
Best Production Design
The Nominees
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
What will win: Wicked
What could win: The Brutalist
What should win: Wicked
Wicked’s grand and practical sets should and will take the win here, while The Brutalist could possibly upset it here, stretching its significantly smaller budget in creating expansive minimalist spaces that somehow feel both claustrophobic and massive at the same time.
Best Costume Design
The Nominees
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
What will win: Wicked
What could win: Nosferatu
What should win: Wicked
Should be an easy win for Wicked. Nosferatu might nab a constellation here and in make-up, but the collective love for Wicked will push voters in wanting to give it all the awards it can win.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
What will win: The Substance
What could win: Nosferatu
What should win: The Substance
It’s hard to see the gloriously gross body horror of The Substance losing out here, especially considering how frequently it ramps up the ickiness to its final horrifying form. Well deserved and yay another win for horror at the Oscars.
Best Editing
The Nominees
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
What will win: Conclave
What could win: Anora
What should win: Anora
What should be here: Challengers
This category is also another contentious one with voters as they often go for whatever is flashiest, not fully understanding the power of a well-edited film. The editing dictates the flow of everything. The less you notice it, the better really. It's known as an invisible art form for a reason. And thankfully my two top picks embody that intention perfectly. Anora didn’t pick up a nomination from its guild, but it did for the Eddie Awards. However, Conclave picked up for both, so I have a feeling Conclave will take this. It also depends on just how many awards the Academy wants to award writer/director Sean Baker (he is also the editor here). As mentioned before, this category and Screenwriting are important in determining who will win Best Picture. If both are won by one film, then it’ll most likely be the big winner. So it's still incredibly close and it has happened in the past where a film won best picture even though it didn't win either award. Hoping for an Anora win but won't be mad at Conclave taking it here. It is also worth noting that the Academy tends to award whatever appears to be flashy in terms of cutting, so Anora's fast pace could push it over the line (even though there's more to editing than that).
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
What will win: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
What could win: Dune: Part Two
What should win: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Although not as jaw-dropping as the visual effects in both Dawn of and War for the Planet of the Apes, the visual effects in Kingdom is still incredible and should win as a means to make up for the former never having won an Oscar, which in my opinion, is the best motion-capture performances and effects ever seen in film.
Best Sound
The Nominees
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
What will win: Dune: Part Two
What could win: The Wild Robot
What should win: Dune: Part Two
Both Dune and The Wild Robot won their categories at their guild awards, but you seldom see an animated film win this category, especially if Dune is up for Best Picture and The Wild Robot isn’t, so Dune should take it here.
Best Original Score
The Nominees
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
What will win: The Brutalist
What could win: Wicked
What should win: The Brutalist
What should really win: Challengers
I was surprised to see Wicked make it here. Emilia Pérez should not be here but knowing the Academy’s non-negotiable love for musicals, I wasn’t surprised by it being nominated. But Wicked apparently has enough new orchestral music to warrant it being eligible as its songs are not eligible due to them being previously existing pieces of music. But even then, the music in between those bangers is hardly memorable, making Challengers' absence from this category even more infuriating. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ techno-driven score is such an integral part of the energy and conflict of Challengers and God dammit, should’ve been their third Oscar. Voters may vote for Wicked thinking the Broadway songs make up its originality, but highly unlikely as they will choose The Brutalist over Wicked and Emilia Pérez for reasons already discussed.
Best Original Song
The Nominees
El Mal (Emilia Pérez)
The Journey (The Six Triple Eight)
Like a Bird (Sing Sing)
Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez)
Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late)
What will win: El Mar
What could win: Like a Bird
What should win: Like a Bird
What should be here: Vaster than Empires (Queer)
El Mar is a lock in what is probably the most adequate of songs and musical set pieces in Emilia Pérez, winning all the appropriate awards that pave the way for the Oscar. Diane Warren will once again not win, having been nominated 16 times without a win and it won’t change here, yet she is nominated almost every year without fail. Oof. That’s got to hurt. Like a Bird is my favourite in the category. More love for Sing Sing, please. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross should’ve received another nomination here for their collab with Caetano Veloso which showcases just how much range they possess.
I'm totally way off, aren't I? Anyways, see you at the Oscars.
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